Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh Border Conflict - Fabrício P. Guerra
Armenian-Azerbaijani Border Conflict
The Caucus Mountains have been a place of conflict for most of recent history. Beginning in the 1850s, aggressive Russian expansion into Europe led to a coalition war against them in 1853, where modern day Armenia was a ferocious battleground between the Ottoman Empire, France, Austria, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Russia. Russia ended up losing and giving back territory they had gained from the Ottomans, and they also suffered a lot of economic damage that led to a lot of Russian History that I'm not going to get into. Anyway, since Oil wasn't a sought-after resource yet, there were no border changes in the Caucuses. During World War One, however, there was another frontline in the caucuses (which is usually glossed over) between the Ottomans and Russians, and in 1915 the Ottomans began the Armenian Genocide which later ended in 1923. Racial and Political tensions had been mounting between Turks and Armenians since the Ottomans had first occupied the area, but Armenians were organizing and pushing towards Independence, and this impeded Ottoman progress in battle, which culminated in the second-biggest organized genocide in history. After the Ottoman Empire was taken apart and the Republic of Turkey was formed, but with a lot of land taken by the victors of the war. One of the major outcomes of this was the formation of Armenia, but post-war Turkey was led by the industrializers of the Ottoman Empire, and at it's peak was Ataturk, a man who industrialized Turkey to its potential and was dedicated to reconquer its core territories. The new Armenian state was built on a foundation of a -- literal -- battlefield. Not to mention that 1.5 million of it's population had been either murdered or deported, which led to Turkey crushing it in a war and reestablishing its pre-war borders, and the remnants of Armenia were absorbed into the Soviet Union, which at the time was a huge cold mess that I will not get into. Anyway, once the Soviet Union began to break apart in the late 80s and early 90s, Armenia and Azerbaijan got into border conflicts around the area of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was owned by Azerbaijan but was majority Armenian. What separates Armenians from Azerbaijanis is mostly religion, where Armenians are Orthodox Christians and Azerbaijanis are Sunni Muslims. Once the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, there was no one that was able to keep them from killing each other, so a war over the region erupted, lasting from 1988 to 1994 (the war had technically started in 1988 due to border clashes, but the real stuff started happening after the Soviet Union collapsed).
The war ended up killing 30,000 people and ended with a ceasefire due to pressure from the new Russian government. Despite Azerbaijan receiving lots of help from Turkey, they lost a lot of the Nagorno-Karabakh territory to Armenia and it cut the country in half. Both sides lay claim to the territory, and until 2020 everything has been peaceful. However, in the beginning days of October there have been several unprovoked attacks from both sides, and both are accusing each other of aggression. Turkey has been helping Azerbaijan militarily with military advisors, equipment, and soldiers, which is lighting the stage for another Middle Eastern war. The main overseers of the diplomatic process are France, Russia, and the United States, and everyone is trying to get them to cool things down. There is a worry that Russia could've gotten involved due to a defense treaty, but so far they have pushed for a peaceful solution. However, both sides have continued to engage in fighting that has been targeted in civilian areas. Vox predicted 3 outcomes for the war in terms of likeliness. 1.) Russia intervenes diplomatically and forces a ceasefire, which is unlikely due to Turkey provoking a conflict. 2.) Russia uses its power to get Armenia out of the conflict, which would leave Turkey as a greater power in the region, which is a little bit more likely since Turkey has been provoking Azerbaijan and that leaves Russia with less footing to deal out a ceasefire, so the only thing they can do is get Armenia out of the conflict. 3.) A war breaks out between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the winner gets Nagorno-Karabakh. Such a war would be very deadly, considering the allies of both sides, and it would probably drag on and on and other parties may get involved, turning it into a Syrian Civil war-esque scenario But for now, peace is the thing that ally nations seem to be pushing for.
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